…Synopsis….
A stationary front covering a lot of the northeast will be turning into a warm front as it moves its way eastward. The front appears to be moving faster than normal as a lot of places in PA including State College, PA busted by over 10 degrees today. The warm sector of the warm front will stay over most of PA and for the remaining part of the week triggering thunderstorms across PA. An extensive amount of precipitation is expected over PA again as it may rain every day this week.
…Short Term…
The next few days should be mild and muggy. Temperatures will be in the 70s and could hit 80 in some places. Thunderstorms may be severe at the beginning of the week in some places. The 12z runs of the UK, Canadian, GFS, and WRF all agree on a large wave of positive vorticity advection occurring in the mid-west. By Thursday, the system looks developed, but the WRF model has it developing more towards Friday. Precipitation is expected every day this week according to the European model, which holds true to the rainy trend PA has been experiencing the past few weeks.
…Long Term…
After the next few days of warm weather, a developing low could head towards PA or slightly north of PA. The path the low takes will decide the potential for thunderstorms later in the week and the amount of precipitation. The warm sector of the warm front will leave around Thursday, so temperatures will drop substantially after Wednesday, but temperatures will still be relatively mild. Rain weather is still expected at the end of the week.
Stephen Quinn
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