Synopsis
Foggy and cloudy conditions are the norm for much of the Commonwealth at 8am, and it looks like that the clouds will not break but remain with us for the next 24-48 hours. A warm front will push through the region today, with a strong cold front that has the potential to spark off some severe thunderstorms bullying its way through Monday evening. Tuesday, after the chance of a morning shower, we begin to clear as high pressure builds in and remains with us until Thursday before moving off to the east.
Short-term:
Both the GFS and NAM are saying that the RH at 850 and 700 mb will decrease throughout the day on Sunday; we say hogwash, and so does one stop mos. One stop mos supports the idea that it will remain cloudy until mid-morning on Tuesday; therefore, we ran with this idea and not with the 850 and 700 mb RH levels. The NAM has the crazy idea of showers popping up in the NE part of the state for today, while the GFS says no such idea, therefore we went with the more sane solution and went with no showers for the NE. Both the NAM and GFS show the cold front pushing through Monday evening. The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk for most of the state, therefore we went with some storms can be strong.
Long-term:
After the cold front passes, the temperatures only fall to around normal for this time of year. The NAM is showing lingering showers for Tuesday while the GFS has the cold front pushing through and that is it, maybe a morning shower. We went with the solution that made the most sense, the GFS. After that high pressure builds in for the rest of the day on Tuesday and remains with us until Thursday.
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