Saturday morning forecast discussion

Synopsis:

 

Rain moving through the state today, due to a slow-moving area of low pressure and an occluded front, will give many areas of the state an inch or more of rain, with some areas getting even more. Winds will stay up for today and tomorrow, as the isobars continue to stay tightly packed with this strong area of low pressure. By tonight, the steady rain will end, and by tomorrow night, the steady winds will end. There will be a break in the active weather for Monday and Tuesday, until another band of showers (and thunderstorms) moves through on Wednesday. It will be mild on Tuesday, and then warm on Wednesday. Cooler weather will move in for the end of next week.

 

Short-term:

 

Rain, heavy at times, will be making its' way across the Commonwealth through tonight. Windy conditions will also prevail, particularly around the Pittsburgh-metro area. Already this morning, areas near Pittsburgh have seen 60+ mph wind gusts! The rainfall amounts could be pretty high as well, with a few areas getting 2-3" of rain from this storm. The GFS runs seem to be decreasing the forecasted amount of rainfall, while the WRF runs have been fairly steady in their forecasts. This rain will move out during the early evening hours for the western part of the state, and during the wee morning hours for the eastern part of the state. Behind this cold front and area of low pressure, expect continued breezy conditions and the possibility of a few showers up in the north-central region of the Commonwealth for tomorrow. It will also be cool tomorrow (but not cold) due to the 540-mb. line moving through PA. Then, a few showers will affect the southern parts of PA for Monday, as a low pressure system passes by to the south. Tuesday, some showers could affect the northern stretches of PA, as a warm front forms along this area. This will be the cause for warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, before our next cold front moves through on Wednesday ...

Long-term:

 

Warm air will pave the way for some isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front that is expected to move through PA later on Wednesday into Wednesday night. After daytime temperatures in the 60s and 70s, we could see a few strong thunderstorms as the front moves into the state. There will be a line of showers with this front, but it will not be as long-lasting (or intense) as today's front. Once the front passes, expect cooler conditions, and a bit of a break from shower activity until Friday.