Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Clearing skies earlier today as a storm pushes off the coast, while yet another system is beginning to work its way into western PA. Rain will overspread much of the state during the day Friday. Unsettled weather will remain over the region through the weekend and into the early part of the next work week. Mild air works in for Sunday and Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.

Short Term:

Lingering clouds across the northern mountains have held temps in the 40's today, whereas areas where the skies have cleared in southern and western zones have allowed temps to climb into the upper 50's and 60's. Nonetheless, high clouds are already moving into SW PA ahead of the next disturbance that will move into the state early Friday. Good model agreement that heaviest precipitation will be in the western half of the state while NE zones may only see a few showers. Precipitation totals in SW zones and the southern mountains will be on the order of 0.75" with locally higher amounts likely falling in the higher terrain. Rain will gradually taper off as the system moves out of the region late Friday.

Long Term:

Lingering showers and mostly cloudy skies will persist on Saturday across much of the eastern half of the state, while drier air will work into the western half allowing for partly cloudy skies to develop. Warming trend will begin late Saturday as a southwesterly flow will develop from a ridge of high pressure over the southeast U.S. along with a developing storm over the central plains. As indicated by 18z GFS and SREF's, this strong WAA will allow the 570 line to creep as far north as the shores of Lake Erie. MOS guidance has Pittsburgh breaking 80 degrees on Sunday and Philadelphia doing the same on Monday! Associated cold front will push through late Monday and into Tuesday, knocking temperatures back closer to average for this time of year. FROPA will  likely spark a few thunderstorms.

 

Christopher Cornwell