Synopsis: After over a week of cooler than normal weather, we are finally breaking into the spring weather!! A powerful storm will push through the state within the next 48 hours making temperatures go above normal then below for Tuesday. Wednesday we shall see a clipper system push through the northern half of the state, and on Thursday we prepare for another storm, this time all rain!
Short-term:
A storm system out west will help get us out of the trough and any cool Canadian weather associated with it. The warm front will push through tonight with showers. The GFS has the showers more to the West and North while the NAM gets all of the state involved. We went with a compromise that everyone has a shot of a shower and everyone will see clouds. After the warm front pushes through, we will break into the warm sector. MOS so far this year has been 10 degrees cooler than what has occurred on days when we are in the warm sector; hence we bumped MOS temps up by 3. Both NAM and GFS show the cold front pushing though overnight, and the NAM shows a LI of -2 for most of the state for Monday Night. Before the cold front pushes through, high temperatures for Tuesday will be occurring before sunrise.
Long-term:
With the high temperatures occurring before sunrise and the cold front pushing through overnight, temperatures on Tuesday will be dropping during the day. The NAM wants to show a clipper system Tuesday night into Wednesday, while the GFS shows it coming in for Wednesday night. With this big of a gap in timing, went with the CMC, which agreed with the GFS, so Wednesday night put showers from clipper system into the forecast for anyone North of I 80. The GFS shows another storm system making its way towards us for Thursday night and into Friday, but all it looks like is a blob of precipitation with no real "low" at this time.
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