Sunday Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

The surprise Saturday sunshine will not occur today as a stationary front sets up over us, becomes a warm front on Tuesday, leading towards a cold front for Wednesday evening.  Temperatures though will be running above average for this time of year.  Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the week.

Short-term:

The GFS and NAM both correctly have showers occurring in the western half of the state for 12z, as shown by radar.  The showers are scattered in nature, and has been taken into account into the forecast.  Also looking at visible satellite, there is a chance for some breaks in the skies later this afternoon.  Clouds will increase for the sunny eastern half as the morning progresses, with showers in the afternoon for them.  The NAM continues the showers in a continuous line into Monday, while the GFS shows more scattered showers.  Going to go with the scattered shower theory and looking at the RH, only at 850 mb is RH higher than 70% for the showers, therefore, for Monday, mostly cloudy conditions when it is raining, but the chance of partly cloudy skies in areas with no rain.

Long-term:

The GFS and NAM both show a warm front pushing through the state as indicated by the isobars but also by the very scattered showers.  This warm front is associated with a storm system that is rounding a very deep trough in the Midwest.  So went with scattered showers under partly cloudy skies, with partial clearing overnight.  Wednesday and into Thursday, I believe the GFS is hogwash, it pushes the cold front way too slow.  The GFS has the cold front pushing though the state beginning on the Western state line about 0z Thursday (8pm Wednesday), and taking all day long on Thursday to push through.  Not going to by it.  Instead, sunshine will come out for Wednesday with a line of thunderstorms pushing through the state during the evening hours.  We clear out for Thursday, but run the risk of sprinkles as the winds will be coming off of the lakes.

For Tuesday & Wednesday, I did not run above 82 for high temperatures, therefore the highest middle temperature I went with for most places across the state was 80, based on the fact I have more sunshine than the GFS and NAM do.