…Synopsis….
Today's near record temperatures for most of PA will end as a rainier and more synoptic pattern is going to occur for the rest of the week. A cold front will be sweeping over much of the region into late Tuesday, which will in turn bring much precipitation to PA. Positive vorticity advection associated with a low pressure system riding up the coast will account for large amounts of precipitation for the state of PA. High pressure will be seen to the north on Tuesday and Wednesday. By late Wednesday into early Thursday, the precipitation will die off until a very large low pressure system makes its way on Saturday as seen by the 12Z GFS and European model.
…Near term….
The next few days will see rather moderate temperatures hovering around fifty degrees. Tuesday and Wednesday will be experienced by large amounts of precipitation. The European model shows the frontal passage moving a bit slower which will increase precipitation amounts on Wednesday and could add for more precipitation on Thursday. Most models show high pressure developing in the middle of the week around Tuesday and Wednesday, which may add for a stronger synoptic system on Tuesday and Wednesday.
...Long term….
Most models are in agreement that the weekend will be experiencing a large amount of precipitation. The European model and 12Z GFS show a large negatively tilted trough coming into PA this weekend. The Canadian model has the large wave of vorticity maximum coming into PA, but it looks as if it could be concentrated to the northern flank of PA. Either way, do not expect nice sunny weather as it will mostly likely be damp and gloomy.
Stephen Quinn
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