Tuesday Evening

Synopsis:

                Wet and unsettled weather is in-store for the remainder of the week across much of the Commonwealth with temperatures on the rebound as we head through the week. A series of disturbances will track through the state this week with the first arriving today. Rain showers will be confined mainly to the northern half of the state today with southern portions seeing a slight chance of a rain shower. Most locations will remain dry on Thursday before another system makes its way into the region bringing cloudy and wet conditions for Friday. As we head into the weekend, a warm-up is in store with the potential for thunderstorms as we head towards the end of the weekend and the beginning part of next week.

Short Term (Through Wednesday Evening):

                The main weather maker in the short term will be a short-wave disturbance set to enter on Wednesday evening. Skies will remain mostly clear on Tuesday evening and into the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain low in the wake of Monday's cold front. Although the system is small and relatively weak, there is little model agreement on its path. WRF models have the system taking a more northward path. GFS models have the system taking a more central-southward path with a broader range of precipitation. We chose to follow the GFS track based on initialization accuracy and recent accuracy in predictions. SREF models have placed a small amount of frozen precipitation in the North Central region in the early afternoon, but most of the state will see rain with this disturbance.

Long Term (Through Sunday Evening):

                After Wednesday's short-wave disturbance, skies are expected to clear with temperatures remaining relatively stable. Thursday looks to remain relatively clear, but a stray rain shower could be possible in the eastern sectors of the state. Again the WRF and GFS seem to disagree on the exit location of Wednesday's disturbance, but we have again decided to stick with GFS's southerly path.   Thursday evening will remain clear and cool. Another system will enter the area on Friday morning. This disturbance will be comparatively stronger and take a more central path through the state. The heaviest precipitation is expected in the northern regions of the state.  NAM models have the system briefly strengthening in the center of the state before making its eastward exit. The system will exit on Saturday morning with some showers lingering around the area. Quickly following, a warm front will move through the state on Saturday evening. This will cause a dramatic change in the weather throughout the state. Upon its exit on Sunday morning, clouds will quickly clear and the sun will dominate the sky. Temperatures from GFS MOS are expected in the low 70s, but with a low amount of cloud cover, we expect them to be more towards the 80s, especially in the Capital and Southeast regions. This is the result of significant warm air advection in the path of a strong cold front. In a situation similar to last Monday's, the cold front will push warm, moist air ahead of it. The air behind this front looks to be a bit warmer than prior cold fronts this season. The front will carry a significantly larger chance for severe weather. CAPE forecasts from SREF, although not extending to Monday, are significantly higher in the path of the front.

Forecaster: Tom Bedard