TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

…Synopsis…

A cold front will be sweeping through the region into later Tuesday. Strong positive vorticity advection is noticeable with this approaching front, which will in turn bring lightning and thunderstorms to many parts of PA today. With a warm passage on Monday leaving, Tuesday will be experienced by colder temperatures. Once the frontal passage moves out of PA, the rest of the week looks to have moderate temperatures with the weekends seeing a higher chance of warmer temperatures. Precipitation will be noticeable in many regions of PA almost every day this week.

….Near Term….

After Tuesday, it appears to be rather rainy. Temperatures will fluctuate in the 40s and 50s for the middle of the week. The 12Z GFS models show the possibility of rain every day this week, with the next big wave of precipitation coming on Friday. Some positive vorticity advection from the south appears to be coming in our way on Friday, which will in turn produce a decent amount of precipitation. Wednesday and Thursday appear to have spotty showers. The European model shows precipitation occurring over PA every day this week, with the next wave coming in on Friday also.

…Long Term….

It appears that a rather large short wave from the south will be making its way in around Friday. This in turn could produce large amount of precipitation, but its track will have to be watched. With the passage of the cold front during the beginning of this week, cold anomalies of the 500mb levels will subside. In turn, it will bring warmer height anomalies later in the week. Depending on the blocking patterns and track of the storms, we could see higher temperatures for the weekend, but precipitation is still expected for the weekend in most parts of PA.

Stephen Quinn