Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

A wave of low pressure will affect the state today, bringing the opportunity for rain showers for most of the day.   The showers should taper off by tomorrow, but somewhat unsettled conditions will remain for most of the forecasting period.  Expect a mix of sun and clouds this weekend, with the next significant chance of rain on Monday as a cold front passes through.  High temperatures, by Sunday and Monday, could peak in the 70s.

Short-Term:

The 000 UTC WRF and GFS runs both show a nice swath of precipitation entering the state today in association with a wave of low pressure and the frontal structure.   The ensemble mean of the 1500 UTC SREF run for the Northeast shows light rain showers entering western Pennsylvania by early morning and then extending eastward.   The model guidance suggests a heavier swatch of rain affecting much of the state late this afternoon into evening.  The bulk of the rain showers should have left the state by Saturday morning.   The 1200 UTC SREF plumes show a range between .5 and 1.3 inches when all is said and done with this precipitation event, with the bulk of the ensemble members hovering below or right around 1 inch.

Long-Term:

Warm air will build in after the low pressure passes, allowing for quite mild temperatures by Sunday and Monday over much of the state.   The 000 UTC run of MOS is forecasting high temperatures in the 70s on Sunday and into the upper 70s by Monday, but we did not forecast too ridiculously.  Somewhat unsettled conditions are projected to remain over the state through Tuesday, with a mix of sun and clouds and a spotty shower or two.  A cold front should pass through the state on Monday, bringing the chance for rain showers and even a thunderstorm or two, although it is certainly too far off to accurately predict how probable thunderstorms will be.