Synopsis...
Unsettled weather will continue over much of the eastern US as a slow moving trough keeps the stationary frontal zone set up from Texas through the Ohio River Valley from moving very much throughout the week. Not until Friday will the final low pressure system depart into eastern Canada to allow a high pressure system to move into the eastern US.
Short Term...
Today and tomorrow looks to be wet, warm, and humid, but the exact timing and location of the rain and thunderstorms, but both the GFS and WRF models generally show an increased chance of rain over the western part of PA. A slight break in the precip may occur tuesday morning and early afternoon, but then will pick up overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe thunderstorm potential over western and central PA for the next couple days as warm weather and plenty of moisture will be pumped into the area.
Long Term...
The wet weather will continue, but the GFS and WRF models slightly disagree on the timing of when the low will depart towards the end of the week and the amount of precip behind the cold front. The GFS model shows the low pressure system spinning up and kicking the cold front through PA sometime midday on thursday, but the WRF model shows it passing through towards the evening. The WRF model shows a lot more precipitation wrapping around the low over the Great Lakes compared to the GFS model, so we could expect to see a few showers following the cold frontal passage on thursday and friday. We should at least see a glimpse of sunshine finally sometime on friday and most likely for saturday.
Josh Aikins
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