Technical Discussion

Important points to look consider for next shift:

-Timing of precipitation tomorrow and southern cutoff.  SE zones may not see any rain tomorrow--refine forecast.
-Temperatures tomorrow (strong N/S gradient).  NW may not see 40 tomorrow while SW, and places near the MD border reach into the mid 60s with warm advection ahead of 500mb shortwave.
-Temperatures on Tuesday.  GFS and NAM show anywhere from 5-10 degree difference on high temps for Tues.  This is mainly due to how they handle the advancing warm front.  How far north will it get on Tues?  From experience, I would lean toward the warmer solution in places like Laurel Highlands and Pittsburgh since warm air can get in there fairly quickly.  Much harder to scour out cold air in RV/Centre/NC as we learned last week.
-Precip timing on Tuesday.  How much will it rain?  When will it rain?  Doesn't look like a wash out to me but overrunning precip can be hard to figure out.  As the saying goes, "nothing waits for warm advection."
-Temperatures on Tuesday night.  How much do they fall in SW/LH as warm front lifts north?  Are the low temps in the evening?
-High temps for Wednesday.  How much sun does the state see in the warm sector during the day?  Does the cold air stay in place across NE (Poconos) as the 12z WRF suggests?  Leaned toward warmer solution across west and especially central where they should have the longest opportunity to warm on Wednesday.
-Are there thunderstorms on Wednesday evening and could they be severe?  Typical warm sector set up would argue for someone to see a gusty t-storm.
-Exact track of low on Wednesday.  GFS/CMC/WRF/SREF Mean take the low across the Great Lakes, well north of the region while the ECMWF is the outlier and insists on taking it across Bradford and into the Catskill Mountains of New York.  A track like the Euro would limit high temps on Wednesday.

ddpdtdt