Thursday, February 10, 2011

22z Forecast Discussion - 2/10/11

.Synopsis…

The Arctic high settled across the central US will give the region one more frigid night tonight before the first in a line of moisture-starved clippers slide into the area out of the Great Lakes. Light snow will be likely across northern and eastern PA through the weekend, with temperatures warming gradually through the period.

 

.Near Term (THU PM)…

High clouds drifting through will not be enough to keep temps from free-falling again tonight, especially given that highs remained well below AVG during the day. Snowpack will aid in cooling, so expect temps to drop to or below MOS…probably below zero in the normally colder locations. Every location in PA should drop well below 20 tonight.

 

.Short Term (FRI)…

Winds shift more SLY for Friday, the first sign of an extended WAA pattern. Cloudcover will vary across the state…In areas with more clouds, the temps will not rise as much…thus, general pattern of warmer afternoons to the south and west. A shortwave clipper-like system dives in from the NW Friday night, resulting in –SNSH for NWrn zones and typically favored upslope locations in the Laurels. Lack of moisture should prevent measureable snows from passing the I-99 corridor.

 

.Long Term (SAT+)…

Model consensus shows nothing more than flurries reaching Eastern PA thru Sunday. WAA pattern continues…with temps finally approaching normal. NWLY flow persists, but no chance for a widespread precip event until Sunday, when the most organized closed low drifts across to our north. ATTM…soundings support a mix of rain and snow…with marginal surface temps but cool air aloft. Went with chance of rain and snow…but expect warmer areas to change over relatively quickly…Another brief cool down changes all precip back to –SN by Sun PM. Look forward to intense WAA event with significant high setting up over east coast by end of next week.

Jamba

MCM

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