Tuesday, February 8, 2011

2/8 Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Windy conditions linger behind the low pressure system that passed through overnight last night. In its wake a polar continental air mass will be firmly in place across Pennsylvania. Chances for precipitation are close to zero until a clipper system moves through over the weekend. Even this system looks to be a weak one and the chance of precipitation remains small.

Short-term:

Wind and wind chill advisories are currently in place across much of the state until the overnight hours. The WRF shows fairly large areas of 10-15kt winds persisting throughout much of the week, however, and they might be worth mentioning when combined with the cold temperatures {especially in the nighttime hours}. This could create dangerously low wind chill factors. Both the WRF and GFS show the 510-thickness line moving north and south across the state through the short-term. Low relative humidity values at both the 700- and 850-mb levels show clear skies across the state.

Long-term:

A warm-up looks to be in store for the weekend with the beginnings of a break down of the longwave trough that has been in place over the Eastern US for nearly a month. While a clipper system is looking to pass through this weekend, it will not have much moisture with it and as a result we are expecting very little precipitation from it. Sunday may be interesting, as very early model runs and NOAA forecasters are predicting the possibility of some rain/snow mixtures. Future shifts will have to keep an eye on this developing pattern.

-Burkely Twiest


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