Technical Discussion 2-28-11

Synopsis...

A strong storm system with thunderstorms and heavy rain is passing through the state currently, which may end as a few rain/snow showers tonight. High pressure will dominate much of the rest of the week until Friday. A trough will push south into the state on wednesday and thursday to bring a brief shot of cold air with little or no precipitation associated with it. The next storm will affect the state over the weekend.

 

Short Term...

The storm system today has a strong warm front associated with it, which is allowing thunderstorms to build due to increased instability with lower-level warm advection ahead of the cold front. Some storms could have strong wind gusts associated with them as winds are fairly strong just above the surface. Temperatures will drop fast behind the cold front and may allow some rain/snow showers to mix for some areas of the state tonight. Skies will clear for the day on tuesday with temperatures near the 30 year normal.

 

Long Term...
A short wave trough will move into the state during the day on wednesday from the north. Little or no precipitation will be associated with this cold front as mainly cold, dry air will infiltrate the state wednesday and thursday before a moderation in temperatures for friday. The next storm system will be on our heels on friday with some rain/snow showers isolated to the western part of the state. Central and eastern parts of the state won't get in on the action until saturday and sunday as a fairly potent storm could move into the region. Timing, track, and intensity of this storm is still variable within the forecast models, so this is another storm to keep an eye on.

Josh Aikins