Synopsis:
High pressure will remain over the state today, allowing for dry conditions and a mix of sun and clouds. A few weak disturbances will approach the region throughout the weekend, bringing the opportunity for a stray snow or rain shower. Temperatures will start to moderate beginning this weekend. Expect high temperatures in the low 40s by Monday – a very nice break from the bone-chilling cold we've been experiencing as of late.
Short-Term:
The 1200 UTC runs of the WRF and GFS models both show the ridge of high pressure moving off the East Coast as today progresses. A few weak Alberta Clippers will pass to the north of the state this weekend. The 900 UTC run of the SREF ensemble, as manifest in the plumes, fairly consistently show some precipitation, albeit minimal, as Saturday progresses into Sunday. No ensemble member projects more than .1 inch liquid equivalent of precipitation accumulation by the end of the weekend. Interestingly, there was some inconsistency among the ensemble members with regards to precipitation type on Sunday, with about half the members having the albeit light precipitation changing to rain as Sunday progresses. (The models indicate that significant WAA will be occurring). So we forecasted accordingly and used phrases such as 'a chance of showers' or 'a stray shower.'
Long-Term:
The models are all consistent in showing a moderating temperature trend as the weekend progresses, especially into Monday and Tuesday.
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