A large area of high pressure centered over southern Ontario will settle into the commonwealth on Wednesday. This will bring another chilly, but delightful day across the state. Moist southerly flow will develop on Thursday ahead of our next storm system. The area of low pressure will bring rain showers with it Thursday afternoon before changing over to a wintry mix Thursday night and early Friday.
Short-Term:
Not much to talk about in the short-term forecast. The area of high pressure which was situated to our north on Tuesday will continue to slide to the south on Wednesday. This will provide brilliant weather across the entire commonwealth under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be close to normal across much of the state with highs in the middle to upper 30s. Some locations in the southwest corner of the state could approach 40. Winds will become southerly ahead of our next system on Wednesday night. These southerly winds will keep temperatures into the 20s Wednesday night. There will also be an increase in cloud cover late Wednesday night in the wake of the next storm system.
Long-Term:
Boy do things get interesting with this next storm system. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the precipitation type(s) Thursday evening into Friday making the forecast quite complex. The area of low pressure will make its way out of the southern plains Thursday and begin to move into the western parts of the state late Thursday afternoon and evening. Currently, the SREF plumes show the precipitation being all rain during the onset. Both the WRF and GFS support the a rainy solution to begin, but then slightly diverge from there. Both the soundings of the WRF and GFS support rain throughout much of the event. The 0 degree isotherm at 850mb on the 0Z WRF is pushed into the southern tier of New York Thursday night. The lower levels near the surface will be below freezing which supports a wintry mix during the overnight period. As Friday morning approaches, the wintry mix will change over to completely snow as the winds shift from southwest to northwest. The storm will also quickly make its way out on Friday with decreasing cloudiness during the evening hours and into Friday night. Therefore here is how I see it going down: the onset of the precipitation will be rain. It will then switch over to a wintry mix during the overnight hours and early part of the morning on Friday. As the residual precipitation is making its way stage east, it will switch over the snow.
Saturday looks to remain dry with partly cloudy skies across much of the commonwealth. There will be a chance of some light snow on Sunday as a week system moves just to our north. Early next week look pretty interesting...stay tuned!
~ Matt Alto
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