Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Low pressure over the southern plains will push into our region over the next 24-36 hours. This storm will bring moderate to heavy rain across the state, with some snow showers and wintry precipitation mixing in across the northern counties. High pressure will build in behind this departing system for the early part of the weekend.  A weak disturbance looks to skirt across the northern tier of the state during the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday, leaving a light snowfall across northern counties. Clearing skies late Monday will only give way to another storm set to move into the region early Monday morning.

Short Term:

A large slug of moisture associated with a low pressure system currently centered over the southern plains will continue to move north and east into our region over the next 24-36 hours. Precipitation will start out as rain across the state, eventually transitioning to snow/wintry mix. Cold FROPA during early afternoon hours on Friday will lead to a changeover in most zones. Upcoming shifts should look to fine tune the timing of this changeover. Total QPF from this storm look to be on the order of 1-1.5" across much of the state with locally higher amounts in the northern and western zones. Winds will ramp up Friday evening in the wake of this departing system, gradually subsiding during the overnight hours and into Saturday. High pressure builds in across the region for Saturday with temps remaining close to climatological means for the weekend. A week disturbance moves in overnight Saturday and into Sunday bringing a light snow across the northern tier of the state. The WRF appears to be the outlier at the moment, currently showing a light swath of precipitation moving SE across the state. SREF guidance along with the GFS, CMC show a more northern track to this system, likely moving across the NY-PA border. Nonetheless, precipitation totals from this disturbance will be light.

Long Term:

Strong WAA ahead of a developing system over the Central Plains will allow temps across the state to climb much above average for late February, with most locals approaching 50 on Monday. The ECMWF has this storm moving through the region Monday into Tuesday. We made sure to include rain showers in the forecast for Monday. Although appearing unlikely at the moment, a convective outlook from the SPC for Monday shows a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm across southern counties.

Christopher Cornwell