Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

A strong ridge of high pressure currently extends from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic. The next storm system looks to move up the eastern seaboard and into our region late Friday night and into Saturday. Clearing skies Sunday will provide a brief respite before the next round of wintry weather moves in overnight Sunday into Monday.

Short Term:

A strong ridge of high pressure will bring tranquil conditions across the NE to round out the rest of the work week. Clear skies and calm winds will allow overnight temps to plummet into the single digits across northern zones and low to mid-teens across the southern reaches of the Commonwealth. Friday looks to be another beautiful mid-winter day across the state with sunny skies and temps sticking around the climatological means. Mid to high level clouds will move in during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of a storm that will move up the eastern seaboard and into the NE late Friday night and into Saturday. A light to moderate snow will overspread the state from south to north. There is good agreement on the timing of this system, but it is tough nailing down the precipitation types/times of changeover.  Warm air at the surface and temps above freezing at 850mb should keep precipitation mixed, especially in areas south of I-80. 15z model runs have much of the state receiving a total QPF of 0.5-0.75" from this system. Possible light ice accumulations in SE/Capital regions while northern zones look stay all snow. Strongest precipitation should occur during the afternoon hours on Saturday. Winds look to be southerly before shifting to the NW Saturday evening as this storm pushes off to our north and east. 

Long Term:

A weak ridge of high pressure will build in behind the departing storm, keeping the state dry on Sunday. The next storm looks to move in overnight Sunday and into Monday bringing light accumulations across the state. A trough will dig in across the NE in the wake of this system bringing cooler temps across the state for the middle of next week.

 

Christopher Cornwell