Synopsis: A weak disturbance passes through the state this morning, providing snow for mostly NSQ and NE. A stronger clipper system moves above the state on Monday, which brings us back to reality for Tuesday. High Pressure sets up along the VA/NC coast brining in some nice warm weather for the rest of the week.
Short-term: It looks like the models as a little north with the precipitation on the 0z run. But for this forecasting period, there is really no major storm to worry about, so the difference really has no impact in the forecast. A stronger clipper system moves through Northern New York and New England Monday morning, bringing clouds for most of the state and most likely a chance of snow for NW and NC. The system will bring windy conditions on Monday and into Tuesday. The models try to show lake effect snow, but hopefully by this time the lakes are frozen over, so the mechanism that would start lake effect is shut off. The clipper departs and temperatures will come back to reality as a quick shot of cold air comes in.
Long-term: This quick shot of cold air will only last on Tuesday and is eroded by high pressure that sets up along the NC/VA coast. The GFS predicts the high pressure to reach 1030mb status. This will lead to some nice warm air from the south, as the winds for most of the state come from the west/southwest. Temperatures will be 1 STD above normal for Thursday and into Friday. Next system rolls through the region sometime on Friday.
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