Monday, February 21, 2011

Technical Discussion 2-21-11

Synopsis...
 
Two main storm systems will affect the state this week. The first is occurring currently and will last into tomorrow morning, and the second will arrive thursday night and into the day on friday. A slight moderation in temperatures above freezing will occur between the two storms for wednesday for most of the state.
 
Short Term (Monday-Tuesday)...
 
The first batch of precipitation has move to our east this morning along a quasistationary frontal boundary extending from southern Indiana through northern West Virginia. Another wave of low pressure will follow a slightly southern track due to a northerly flow over much of the state. This northerly flow and cold advection will transition the precipitation from a mix to mainly snow overnight for the southern tier of the state, where the Laurel Highlands could see up to 9 inches of show according to the NWS. Lighter accumulations will be seen as you move farther north. Central PA could get a 2-4 inch coating of additional snow tonight. Snow will taper off tuesday morning for the southern tier of the state as high pressure moves in.
 
Long Term (Wednesday-Friday)...
 
A brief period of sunny and moderating temperatures will occur on wednesday as high pressure moves in. Another disturbance will move into the state thursday and friday. GFS models are showing colder air in place over the northern half of the state as the low pressure system tracks generally through southern PA and Maryland. Other models are showing warmer air in place for this storm, so this is one to keep an eye on as to what type of precipitation we will see.


Josh Aikins


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