Thursday, February 10, 2011

Synopsis

Over the next couple of days, temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the 20's to lower 30's and lows in the teens to even single digits. However, temperatures will begin to moderate towards the end of the weekend with mostly sunny skies for most of the state with Sunday temperatures near 40. Although temperatures will begin to increase during the weekend, a shortwave will bring a chance for a wintry mix for the southern half of the state and light to snow accumulation for the northern half of the state as a clipper system passes through on Saturday.

 

Short Term (Tonight up until Thursday night)

Very cold temperatures will remain in store the area through Thursday. Both the WRF and GFS show the 510-thickness line moving south across the state. Lows will tend to below normal with the help of clear skies as well very low thicknesses. During this period of time, no major precipitation is expected.

 

Long Term (through Tuesday):

 The pattern that has featured below normal temperature looks to break down as we approach early next week. A warm-up looks to begin by next week as the long wave trough that has been in place over the Eastern 
US for nearly a month is replaced by a ridge. However, before this occurs, the broad long wave trough over the eastern third of the continental United States will persist into the weekend.
A couple of shortwaves will pass through the area before ridge breaks down. A shortwave will move through the area on Saturday bringing a chance for flurries in the northern half of the state.
 
Another clipper will approach Sunday night into Monday bringing the chance for a wintry mix for northern areas and mostly rain in the southern regions.
Once the clipper passes, models are in good agreement on a ridge building into the area bringing above normal temperatures.
 As thicknesses rise as well 850 mb temperatures, highs could approach the middle to upper 40's and even as high as 50 by Tuesday.

-Matthew Mehallow

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