Synopsis...
Weak disturbance to bring wintry precip to region tomorrow and Tuesday. A brief return to chilly air for the rest of the week in the wake of the storm system before a trend towards moderating temperatures by the week's end.
Near Term (Sun Night-Mon Afternoon)...
Clouds extending across western portions of the state at this hour as our next weather maker organizes over the Midwest and Southeast. Eastern zones remain sunny this afternoon and see increasing clouds overnight. Kept temperatures on upper side of guidance due to the cloud cover (majority of state in the 20s with some teens in the coldest areas). Whole state is mostly cloudy but dry tomorrow morning ahead of advancing area of low pressure.
Short Term (Mon Evening-Tuesday)...
Shortwave in SE will tilt negative during the day Monday and help to spawn a coastal sfc low later in the day. At the same time, a northern branch disturbance will be diving across the Great Lakes. The interaction of these two features is key in determining how much snow falls (especially in the SE portion of the state). Scattered snow showers associated with northern feature will break out in the afternoon across the western zones with little accumulation as sfc temps will be at or above freezing. At this point, we do not see enough phasing between the two shortwaves to think SE will see a significant event. However, the 12z CMC is most bullish with the precip in eastern zones and other model trends should be monitored later today and tomorrow morning. SREF shows a minimal event for entire area. Overall, the set up is not good for a decent snow storm with a lack of cold air and poor dynamics. Therefore, we went with snow showers across the state tomorrow night. Looks like a general 1-2" in most places. Maybe up to 4" in some heavier bands. But sfc temps should be borderline, making accumulation hard on paved surfaces. Coastal low will really get cranking Tuesday morning, allowing winds to be gusty in the afternoon as we see strong cold advection. Temps in Tue should reach their max before noon.
Long Term...(Tuesday Night-Thurs)...
Chilly air returns but with sunshine for mid week behind storm system. The next disturbance looks like it will stay as a flat wave and well south of the region for Thursday as the flow does not amplify. Looking ahead, it looks like we will see a return to zonal flow (at long last) which will lead to a moderation in temperatures as the strong ridge in the West and associated +PNA breaks down.
ddpdtdt
No comments:
Post a Comment