Saturday morning technical forecast

Synopsis:

 

We are leaving behind the moderate to heavy rain associated with yesterday's cold front passage. In the wake of it, we will see chillier weather (although not really cold) and, up north, the chance of a few snow showers for today. This will move out of the area tonight, and we will see a brief break from precipitation for tomorrow. It will start to get milder tomorrow, as we see winds ahead of a warm front. The warm front will move through early on Monday, giving most areas of PA a period of moderate to heavy rain. Then, later on Monday, a cold front will sweep through the state, enabling another period of moderate to heavy rain. An isolated thunderstorm or two could also be embedded in this rain. Once the frontal passage occurs, expect blustery conditions, and noticeably colder temperatures (although again, it won't be really cold). Through much of the rest of the week, we will see clouds and sun, and temperatures in the 40s, for the most part.

 

Short-term:

 

An area of low pressure will pass to the north of the state today, giving northern areas a little bit of snow later this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise, most areas will be dry, seeing some sun, but more clouds further north. Tomorrow, expect a warming trend to begin, as the 540 height line moves northward, and winds start coming from the south. A pretty complex storm system, with a warm front ahead of it, and a cold front behind it, will make its' presence known across Pennsylvania starting late Sunday night and into Monday. There will be some rain as a result of the warm front, but heavier rain (as well as the possibility of a few isolated thunderstorms) are more likely ahead of the cold front. Both the 12Z GFS and WRF have the cold front passing through Pennsylvania Monday night, but the WRF has it swinging across at about 9Z (4 AM), whereas the GFS has it moving through at about 3Z (10 PM). In any case, expect winds to be turning from a southerly direction to a northwesterly direction pretty quickly once the cold front passes. Also, expect (before the front passes) some pretty heavy precipitation amounts. According to the 12Z WRF, areas of northwestern PA could see up to 3.5" of precipitation from this storm, as the low tracks across that part of the Commonwealth. The 12Z GFS keeps precipitation amounts down, but does show heavy amounts south of Pittsburgh (up to 2"). It all depends on how the low associated with the cold front treks. Beyond that, we will see more tranquil conditions for the rest of the week.

 

Long-term:

 

Expect colder temperatures once the cold front moves through, as well as blustery conditions. The winds will calm down Tuesday evening, and beyond that, we will see pretty nice weather until Friday, when our next front is expected to move across the area. There will be some clouds in the northern areas Wednesday, and possibly a flurry or two Wednesday night, but nothing more than that. It will be colder come Thursday, as some Canadian air tries to move in, but it will not be anything major.