.Synopsis…
Spring fever in full force till Fri…Another much-above-average temperature day for Friday, especially if cloud cover breaks apart. Cold front works its way into the region during the late morning to early afternoon hours, giving western regions a chance for light rain…but eastern zones shud remain dry. Temps crash for Saturday, with gusty NW winds. Next chance for precip will be for Sunday, with a potent system moving in from the west. Enough cold air may remain in place to cause some wintry conditions…
.Short Term (THU PM – SAT)…
Region dominated by broad SW flow with HPRES off to S. Temps will surge Fri aftn, approaching record levels in spots. Expect temps to soar past MOS values due to much stronger than avg WAA…and our temps were on conservative side, esp if clouds break. 18z WRF shows 850 temps touching 10 C along the Delaware. Dry air mass in place and location in right jet exit region will hamper incoming cld frnt …most precip is limited to wstrn zones…with only a little schmutz getting past the Laurels. But…wstrn zones will see sctd –RA shwrs during peak heating hrs, which may keep temps a little lower than surrounding areas…but most precip may only cause mesoscale temp variations. Any problems getting warm will only be for areas unable to crack through weak AM inversion. Regardless…the front's impacts will be felt in form of a gusty NW wind and a sharp drop in temps aftern FROPA for Sat…with highs about 15 deg lower…Strong winds may be an issue over the wknd if enough mixing occurs. Cannot rule out flurries in north and NE Sat with strong fetch off Lk Ontario.
.Long Term (SUN-TUE)…
Interesting setup for Sun…as a series of disturbances will begin to migrate our way along the dividing line between cold and mild. ATTM…GFS has shifted track farther north, giving PA moistly rain shwrs…which agrees more with previous UK and NAM runs…but previous GFS runs set up a wintry mix…even snow north of I-80. HPC predictions and PWAT values pretty high…over an inch thru F96…so even if precip is liquid, hydro will have to be on watch. Secondary shortwaves continue to funnel thru into the first part of the workweek….with precip type still remaining an issue. We'll go with a mix to keep options open, but trends show general warming/nrthrly soln. Later shifts can hash out the details…"Everything's better with a little hash"-Grumm. General consensus is general clearing pattern but continued cool thru midweek.
MCM
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