Saturday morning forecast

Synopsis:

 

Strong, blustery winds from the WNW to NW are blowing across the entire Commonwealth this morning. These will continue throughout the day, as we see very tight pressure gradients between the departing area of low pressure, and high pressure that is behind it. Winds will stay sustained at 15-25 knots across the state, with higher gusts in between. These winds will die down tonight. Also, the temperatures are much chillier than what they were at this time yesterday, and for the foreseeable future, will not be getting anywhere near what they were Friday. The snow showers up north will diminish by this afternoon, and all areas will see some clearing for tonight. However, this will be short-lived as another system (a warm front) moves towards PA on Sunday and into Monday. The exact position of the warm front, according to both 6Z models (GFS and WRF) will be along the southern part of the state, gradually moving south on Monday. North of this boundary, many areas will see a wintry mix of sleet or freezing rain, or all snow or all rain. Tuesday, a cold front passes to our south, leaving drier but noticeably colder conditions. It will get milder later in the upcoming week, however.

 

Short-term:

 

A few flurries are continuing across the northern parts of PA early this afternoon, but this should end before sunset. The winds, however, will stay pretty strong across the Commonwealth through the evening, with wind speeds as above. There will be a weak ridge of high pressure developing tonight, which will clear things out tonight briefly. By tomorrow, however, clouds will again be on the increase, as a warm front moves towards our state. There will be enough cold air in place for the northern half of the state to see snow at first, but as the warm air begins to override the cold air, we will see this change over to a wintry mix. Anything from sleet to freezing rain to plain rain will be possible Sunday night across all of Pennsylvania. This will continue for the first half of Monday, but as the 540 thickness line and the warm front start to sink south, the precipitation will move south with both of these features. Monday night, there is another chance of moderate precipitation, but it will be confined to the very southern part of PA. The 06Z WRF run shows a little bit more precipitation across the southern half of PA than the 06Z GFS run. However, the 12Z runs seem to reduce the amount of precipitation across the southern part of PA (about 1" to 1.5" maximum over the next 84 hours, as opposed to about 2" to 2.5" maximum from the 00Z WRF). So, keep your eyes on this feature. In any case, there will be a messy wintry mix across many areas of Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a cold front will pass to our south, drying things out around here.

 

Long-term:

 

Once the cold front passes, winds will again come from the WNW to NW, but they will likely not be as strong as today. Temperatures will be quite cold, with highs in many areas only in the 20s and 30s. It will stay pleasant (though cold) on Wednesday. A nice ridge axis will set up, calming the winds down on Wednesday and enabling temperatures to be higher than Tuesday. It will still be cold on Wednesday, just not as much as Tuesday. Thursday, an area of low pressure will pass to our south, giving some areas a chance of rain or snow. This chance will increase on Friday, as another cold front and low pressure system associated with it approach the state. Temperatures will become milder again by Thursday and Friday of next week, with highs in the 40s and maybe 50s, before this second cold front passes through.