3-15-2011 Technical Discussion

Technical Forecast Discussion

 

Synopsis:

 

After last week's chaotic rain events, the Northeast will see some quieter weather. Only expect periods of light rain showers across the state Tuesday night as a storm system approaches from the Midwest. The showers will continue into Wednesday but should taper off later in the day. Some clouds will linger early Thursday morning and the temperatures should be around seasonal values. More clouds will move in on Friday as a series of low pressure systems travels across the Great Lakes. More showers will ensue over the weekend.

 

Short-term (Tuesday – Wednesday night)

 

A cut-off 500-mb low over Central Midwest and its associated surface low will start to turn northeastward on Tuesday. A 500-mb shortwave traveling along the U.S-Canada border will absorb the cut-off low, as result, a complex area of low pressures will develop over the Northeast. Some rain showers will break out Tuesday evening and can't rule out the possibility of snow flakes mixed in, especially in the higher elevations. The rain will continue into Wednesday with the heaviest bulk falling over the eastern portion of the state. The rain showers shall taper off Wednesday night. Again, some of the higher elevation may see some snow flakes mixed in.

 

Mid-term (Thursday – Friday night)

 

The clouds will linger early in the day on Thursday. However, as a high pressure ridge buildings over the Southwest, it will pump in some drier air into the region. Thus, expect gradually decreasing cloudiness Thursday and into Thursday night. A series of 500-mb shortwave will set up along the U.S-Canada border on Friday and their associated stationary fronts will bring more clouds. Expect increasing cloudiness on Friday, especially for the Northwestern part of the state.

 

Long-term (Saturday – Sunday)

 

A low pressure system riding along the previously mentioned stationary front will intensify as it passes over the Great Lakes. As result, warm air advection will occur ahead of the cold front. The temperatures will climb above normal over the weekend despite of some passing clouds. The current models do not suggest a lot of moisture associated with this cold front, only expecting a few showers to break out on Saturday. In fact, it is quiet possible that the state will see some sunshine before the actual cold front passes through.

David Wang