Sunday, March 20, 2011

Technical Discussion

Synopsis...

Low pressure moving north of the area tonight will bring rain but mild temperatures tomorrow.  Wintry even Tues night-Wednesday.  A return to colder temps and scattered snow/rain showers for the end of the work week.

Short Term (Sun Night-Tuesday)...

High pressure will slide off the East Coast tonight as low pressure moves north of the state.  WAA precip to overspread region after midnight.  Rain looks relatively light with no flooding issues anticipated.  Best dynamics are to the north where PVA from 500mb short wave will aid in precip intensity.  Rain will become scattered on Monday and lack of strong CAA will allow temperatures to rise nicely across the southern half of the state where the sun should peek through by afternoon.  Tuesday will be quiet before a more wintry system approaches the area.

Long Term (Tuesday Night-Thursday)...

Although today is the first day of spring, the weather will take a turn back to winter by the middle of the week.  A sharp temperature gradient will set up across the Ohio Valley and Northeast allowing waves of low pressure to ride along the boundary.  Details still need to be worked out but northern central and north eastern PA could see accumulating snow Tuesday night and Wednesday.  We're dealing with WAA precip again so will have to closely watch p-type issues.  Lots of moisture from the south though will provide the opportunity for several inches of snow in spots if temperatures remain below freezing.  Clearing will begin Wednesday night but northwesterly flow behind the system will allow for scattered snow and rain showers for Thursday and much cooler temperatures.  The weather pattern looks to remain active for at least the next week or so.

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