Synopsis...
Quiet beginning to the week. Snow and rain likely on Wednesday with a reprieve on Thursday before much uncertainty about a storm Friday or Saturday.
Details...
Large done of high pressure NW of Great Lakes will promote sunny skies through Tuesday. Temps will remain below average but moderate each day as air mass modifies. Went close or slightly below MOS for the week due to abnormal chilliness of airmass for late March. Should be a tranquil/non eventful beginning to the week with chilly nights and brisk days, more reminiscent of late October or November. Expect a bit of a breeze as well for the beginning of the week making it feel cooler despite the strong late March sun.
Storm system on Wed bears watching. Most guidance has primary low sliding south of the region with precip breaking out on Wed across entire state. Definitely a mix of precip types due to warm boundary layer at this time of year. Also, any snow that does fall will struggle to accumulate due to the high sun angle. Biggest difference noted in the model guidance was how WRF handled the 500mb shortwave vs. every other model. The WRF keeps it much more compact while other models shear out all the energy. This is a known bias of the GFS but the WRF is not as great >60 hrs out. Something to keep watching early this week. Scattered rain and snow showers will occur on Thursday.
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