March 16th Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

The low pressure system that brought the Commonwealth rain showers late yesterday afternoon through the overnight hours will continue to push its way to the northeast today. Rain showers will continue throughout the morning hours across much of the state before clearing out by the afternoon. High pressure will stake claim across the region on Thursday, St. Partrick's Day, but will be short lived as a cold front will move across the region Friday night and into early Saturday. Unseasonably mild temperatures are in-store for the second half of the week and weekend.

Short-Term:

The weakening low pressure system will continue to push to the northeast today. As a result, much of the state will see scattered rain showers during the morning hours with the best chance of heavier precipitation being across the eastern half of the state. By the afternoon, most of the rain will be in the New England states. Both the WRF and the GFS show a relatively weak secondary trough moving through the state during the afternoon hours which will enhance cloud cover along with a few scattered showers across the central and eastern parts of the state. Temperatures will predominantly be in the middle to upper 40s across the state with temperatures in the 50s across the southeast. Clouds will begin to decrease Wednesday night as high pressure begins to move into the area.

Long-Term:

A ridge of high pressure will move into the region Thursday and will provide for a beautiful day all across the Commonwealth. This area of high pressure will bring above average temperatures into the region with many locations across the state flirting with 60 both on Thursday and Friday. High pressure will slide to the east on Friday as a weak disturbance passes to our north to start the weekend. There is a little disagreement with the timing of this precipitation. The WRF wants to bring the precipitation into the western half of the state during the afternoon hours on Friday. The GFS seems to be stalling the precipitation on Friday to the north before making its way through the area on Saturday. We went with a split in the timing. Regardless, this system will bring widespread showers on Saturday. This will be have to be monitored more closely by future shifts with the exact timing and location of this precipitation. Temperatures on Saturday will be knocked down a few degrees closer to the seasonal normals.

High pressure will again build into the region on Sunday and into Monday. This will bring dry and spring like weather across the Commonwealth to start the next work week. Temperatures will be well above average for this time of year.

~Matthew Alto