Technical Discussion

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Mostly sunny skies dominate as we near Spring Break! A moisture starved cold front will push across the commonwealth through the day today allowing temperatures to fall in the afternoon. We will see cooler temperatures with limited cloud cover on Thursday followed by another chance for rain/snow on Friday. Although the chance of rain continues through the Sunday, weekend temperatures will be above average for the first weekend of March.

Short Term (Up to Wednesday Afternoon...)
Clear skies and seasonable temperatures will be the story across the state for much of Wednesday. Unknown to most residents of the Commonwealth though, a cold front will stealthily pass through the state during the afternoon. The only sign of this camouflaged (in sunny skies) front will be a significant shift in wind speed and directions during Wednesday evening. Winds will shift from the SW to the NW to a speed of 15-20mph. The winds will continue to shift north, but weaken as the night drags on. This is the result of a strong center of high pressure that will chase the cold front out of the state. The high pressure will advect cold air from the N during Wednesday evening but then allow for warm air advection during the day on Thursday (see "Long Term" for more exciting news on this!)

Long Term (Up til Sunday Afternoon...)
High pressure will enter the Commonwealth late Wednesday afternoon (see short term discussion) on the tail of a trough of low pressure exiting the state. The system of high pressure, after briefly advecting cold air from Canada, it will begin to push warm air north from the southern Mid-Atlantic states. This warm air advection will last until late Friday night when a warm front moves into the area. Clouds (overrunning cloud cover) will be increasing during the day on Friday and temperatures will remain relatively high as the state remains in the warm sector of the front. Precipitation (rain mostly) will grace the State from late Friday night until Sunday afternoon when the front begins to move its way out of the state. The center of low pressure will stall out slightly near Pittsburgh on Sunday and eventually make its way north along the Atlantic Seaboard as most PSU students make their way south for Spring Break (Monday into Tuesday). The GFS model was most reliable in finding this forecast, but we opted to err on the warm side of the front because of extensive warm air advection from the high pressure. The freezing line looks to cut the state diagonally from the NE to SW during Sunday afternoon, allowing for the possibility of a wintry mix. However as soon as the entirety of the state is inside of the 540 zone (540 line) the bulk of precipitation will have moved out of the state and have linearly hugged to the cold front. Thankfully, the 540 zone will not be the danger zone for snow.

Forecaster:
Tom Bedard