Afternoon Forecast Discussion

.SYNOPSIS…

Winter makes a comeback…Cold, dry air is surging down into the region from the north, providing clearing skies and much above normal temperatures.  A Canadian high will be in control of our weather pattern for the next few days, preventing any major storms, but also keeping temps down. A system tracking to our south will try to make a run at PA for Sunday, bringing a chance for light snow once again.

 

.SHORT TERM…

Final bands of organized precip are long gone now as impressive storm system that brought heavy snow to the NE zones, tornado warnings to the SW zones and thundersleet in between moves out. Only remaining chance for precip will be sctd flurries across the NW/NC zones associated with long fetch off Grt Lks…otherwise, conditions will remain dry thru the end of the week. Temps remain well below normal alongside general NWly flow.

 

.LONG TERM…

Dominating high press suppresses moisture in the south until a shortwave trough shoots toward the NE. GFS indicates first chance of light snow in SWPA late Sat night, while 18z WRF holds off until Sun AM. Good agreement among US and UK models on precip placement…with northern edge of snow shield creeping up to about the PA Turnpike but not reaching further north…CMC is virtual outlier with max extent approaching I-80. Going with lighter solns, keeping steady snow out of zones that don't border MD or WV. After a brief clearing for Monday, a secondary trough follows a similar path, and current model runs keep it a little further south. No prospects for warmup, though, with the -10C 850 mb line remaining fixed over or below PA…Another high drifts south out of Canada and remains in control by mid-week.

MCM