TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

 

 

...SYNOPSIS...

 

Presently there is a higher pressure system to the north that will allow for some clearer skies tonight into tomorrow.  A low pressure system is making its way into the northeast for the middle of this week, which would cause rain to occur in most parts of Pennsylvania late Tuesday into Thursday. In addition, the 12 Z GFS 500 mb height anomalies show a rise in heights for most of this week, which would be a contributing factor to warmer temperatures in the high 40s, 50s, and 60s during the week.

…Short Term...

The GFS and WRF models show precipitation occurring Tuesday through Thursday and possibly on the weekend. The GFS expects maximum vorticity from the midwest and south to merge together by early Wednesday, which will be a contributing factor for precipitation in the middle of this week. The WRF model shows these two vorticity patterns to merge later Wednesday into Thursday, which could allow for the rain to stay a bit longer.  The SREF shows no likelihood of mixed precipitation or snow from the approaching low from the south, so the storm is only expected to produce a lot of rain. The SREF also shows the southwest receiving rain late Tuesday, and by Wednesday, the majority of Pennsylvania is expected to get rain. The heaviest rain appears to be over the central southern region of PA. By Thursday, areas around central PA will most likely still be receiving rain with some parts of Western Pennsylvania receiving some rain showers.

…Long Term….

Once the low pressure system from the south leaves PA Wednesday night into Thursday, the rest of Thursday looks to be relatively sunny as maximum negative vorticity seems to be spreading through most of PA. An approaching high from the south is associated with these negative vorticity patterns which could easily bring temperatures into the 60s for most of PA. Another low pressure system will be making its way to the north around Friday into Saturday, which could produce showers in northern PA. The low is expected to move into Canada, so most of the precipitation looks to be avoided during the beginning of the weekend. After the passage of this low pressure system to the north, the rest of the weekend appears to be mostly sunny and clear producing mild temperatures and little disturbances.

 

Stephen Quinn