Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

A large ridge of high pressure remains parked over the Southeast U.S. allowing for mild air to move in across the region. A cold front will pass over the state early Friday morning allowing for cooler and drier air to settle in across the state for the weekend. Scattered showers moving across the western half of the state early Friday morning will clear out by noon while the eastern half of the state looks to remain dry. Another wave of low pressure will skirt just south of the Mason Dixon line early Saturday bringing another chance for isolated showers across southern zones. High pressure will develop behind this system all before the next round of wet weather looks to move in early next week.

Short Term:

Strong WAA has allowed temps to climb 10-20 degrees above average across the state. Temps tomorrow may break 70 degrees in southern zones! An approaching cold front will erode the ridge of high pressure draped over the region. FROPA early Friday morning will allow cooler and drier air to settle in across the state for the weekend. Scattered showers associated with this cold front look to move through the western half of the state early tomorrow morning while the eastern half of the state will remain dry. Another wave of low pressure will skirt just south of the Mason Dixon line Saturday morning. SREF guidance shows the possibility for an isolated shower to move across SW PA zones during the day Saturday. Total QPF from these two systems looks to be on the order of <0.1" across the western half of the state while the east half remains dry.

Long Term:

12z GFS indicates a 1036mb ridge of high pressure building in across the region late Saturday and Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase late Sunday as the next round of unsettled weather moves into the region Monday. WAA ahead of this system will keep temps above average through Monday, allowing for any precipitation from this system to fall as plain rain. We will leave future shifts to fine tune precipitation amounts for this system.

 

Christopher Cornwell