TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

...SYNOPSIS...

 

Tonight into tomorrow looks to be relatively cloudy and somewhat warm. Temperatures were able to reach into the 70s today for parts of PA but will be a bit colder tomorrow. The 12z GFS and 12z WRF models predict southern to central PA experiencing periods of rain as a low pressure system from the mid-west starts to make its way in Tuesday. Wednesday's precipitation outlook seems challenging as sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain can be entering most of PA. By the end of the week, more rain is expected to enter PA and into next week.

…Short term…

The bulk of the precipitation will be entering Tuesday evening into Wednesday. These precipitation days will be a challenge as the 540 line carrying below freezing temperatures will be hovering around PA. The low pressure system from the west along with some WAA should be accounting for a lot of the precipitation type on Wednesday. Some strong positive vorticity maximums associated with the low could aid in the precipitation amounts in some regions. The system is expected to leave PA by the end of Thursday, so the beginning of the week should be free of precipitation. Friday appears to be the first day of complete sunshine, as most of the week should be relatively cloudy and rainy.

…Long term…

By the beginning of Saturday, another low pressure system from the mid-west is expected to enter southern PA. The storm will not affect much of northern PA until later in the weekend. The long range GFS models predict areas of enhanced precipitation by late Sunday into the early part of next week, so it appears a lot of PA will be experiencing precipitation for the next week.

Stephen Quinn