Synopsis:
A weak low pressure system moving through overnight brings the state the greatest chance of precipitation it will have in the next week or so. Warm temperatures are moving into the Commonwealth, and overall the weather seems fairly quiet with only a few disturbances through next week.
Short-term:
This short-wave disturbance currently working through the area is weakening, and should exit the region by tomorrow afternoon/evening. The WRF and GFS are showing the potential for fairly high totals of precipitation for this storm. However, we did not feel that the precipitation would be steady enough to warrant putting more than 'showers' in the forecast. Today's high temperatures did not reach values expected because of cold-air damming associated with the low off the northeastern coast. This will no longer be the case for tomorrow and the rest of the week, so the warming trend will continue unhindered.
Long-term:
Another weak disturbance is forecast to pass to our north at the start of the weekend, though different models are placing the track and extent of the precipitation in different spots. We agreed with the 12Z WRF that most of the precipitation would be confined to northern areas of the state. The SREF 3-hour POP run confirmed this by showing an extremely low probability of precipitation across the state. The next significant disturbance looks to impact us at the end of next week.
Burkely Twiest
A weak low pressure system moving through overnight brings the state the greatest chance of precipitation it will have in the next week or so. Warm temperatures are moving into the Commonwealth, and overall the weather seems fairly quiet with only a few disturbances through next week.
Short-term:
This short-wave disturbance currently working through the area is weakening, and should exit the region by tomorrow afternoon/evening. The WRF and GFS are showing the potential for fairly high totals of precipitation for this storm. However, we did not feel that the precipitation would be steady enough to warrant putting more than 'showers' in the forecast. Today's high temperatures did not reach values expected because of cold-air damming associated with the low off the northeastern coast. This will no longer be the case for tomorrow and the rest of the week, so the warming trend will continue unhindered.
Long-term:
Another weak disturbance is forecast to pass to our north at the start of the weekend, though different models are placing the track and extent of the precipitation in different spots. We agreed with the 12Z WRF that most of the precipitation would be confined to northern areas of the state. The SREF 3-hour POP run confirmed this by showing an extremely low probability of precipitation across the state. The next significant disturbance looks to impact us at the end of next week.
Burkely Twiest
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