Tuesday, March 22, 2011

3/22 Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

A winter storm currently impacting the Plains and the Midwest will be moving through the area beginning tonight. This will bring nearly every type of precipitation possible to Pennsylvania throughout the next two days. In its wake, cooler temperatures will prevail through the foreseeable future.

Short-term:

This system will likely encompass snow for the northern portions of the state (prompting winter storm watches and warnings as of this writing), brief periods of ice and sleet for the middle portions of the state, rain for the southern portions and even the possibility of thunderstorms for the southwestern corner before changing over to all snow with the passage of a cold front around Wednesday evening. The only precipitation type not showing up on the SREF PTYPE maps is freezing rain. The 540 line is predicted to run right through the state, so precipitation types are difficult to predict with accuracy. We went on the safe side, including the chance for anything and everything in many of our zones. 

Long-term:

After the passage of the cold front the main story is the cold temperatures. It will be cold enough for snow for the rest of the forecast period, and the 540-line remains below the state on both the GFS and the WRF models. However, the clouds are supposed to clear for Friday and Saturday, with the exception of a few clouds at the 850-mb level.

Burkely Twiest


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