TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

...SYNOPSIS...

 

The beginning of the week seems to be relatively normal with temperatures in the 40s for most of the state. A high pressure system lies to the north from Canada, which will bring good weather until it leaves on Tuesday.  After the high dissipates, a low pressure system will be forming in the gulf on Wednesday according to the 12z GFS model. This low will be riding up the coast for the remainder of the week producing precipitation for the later end of the week.

…short term...

A few high pressure systems from Canada will be lingering around for the beginning to the middle of the week. The 12Z GFS shows the highs staying around until Wednesday when positive vorticity advection from the mid-West will be making their way in. The relatively zonal flow into Tuesday will also account for the rather good but chilly weather.  The positive vorticity advection with the low pressure system coming up the coast will contribute to some possible extreme precipitation events later this week. A rather chilly evening will be seen tonight with clear skies, and tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny until the high leaves PA.

…long term…

Later in the week seems to be pretty disastrous but still needs to be watched closely. Positive vorticity gaining a negative tilt towards the end of the week according to the 12Z GFS model could account for extreme precipitation amounts over PA. This could bring snow or a mixed precipitation to most areas starting mostly Thursday into Saturday. Wednesday could see some precipitation, but the SREFS only show the southern parts of PA experiencing most of this precipitation. Sunday appears to be dry, sunny, and decent weather, but the 12Z GFS shows another wave of positive vorticity coming in for Monday of next week, which could make for an even wetter Sunday if the system moves fast enough.