March 30, 2010 Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

The area of high pressure that was centered over south central Canada the past few days and brought the region sunny but cold weather will slide to the east today and remain north of the commonwealth in southern Ontario the next few days. A couple of storm systems will move there way through the region over the next few days. The first system will track to the south of the commonwealth through the Carolinas but will still spread some light rain and snow across the southern and central zones. Another storm system will move up the eastern seaboard Thursday night and into Friday bringing a chance of snow and rain, primarily across the eastern two thirds of the state. Drier weather will return for the weekend, but the below-average temperatures will remain.

Short-term:

A storm system making its way through the southeast and Ohio River Valley today will bring a surge of moisture northward during the day as it moves into the Carolinas. This surge of moisture will bring increasing cloudiness along with areas of rain and snow to the southern and central zones of the state Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Light snow is possible in the Laurels and higher elevations across the state. Wednesday night, the storm begins to race off the coast clearing out a few of the clouds. A few locations could see a few lingering rain/snow showers during the overnight period. Thursday will be the transition day between the two storm systems. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail across the commonwealth, but clouds will be on the increase and precipitation will begin to move into the southern zones as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours.

Long-term:

The long term forecast has the look of something that we would normally see in January or February and not the end of March.Unlike earlier this week, the models seem to be coming closer to an agreement with the track of the coastal low as we head into the end of the work week. Despite this fact, there is still a high level of uncertainty with the exact track of the storm. Therefore, without a clear cut solution to the forecast of the path, the type of precipitation and intensity is hard to determine. As of the current track showed by the 18z GFS, the greatest potential of wintry weather lies in the eastern third of the commonwealth. Snow showers are possible across the rest of the commonwealth but the heavier QPF will be in the east. Much of the precipitation will start out as snow but then will change over to a mix or rain entirely. The storm will move out late Friday afternoon into evening. Lingering snow showers will remain across the region on Saturday, but many locations will remain dry. Chilly conditions will once again return to the area for the weekend.