.SYNOPSIS…
High pressure continues to strengthen over eastern Canada and will keep conditions relatively clear and cool through the end of the work week. A very slow-moving system will work its way in from the west during the weekend, with heavy rainfall possible through early Monday. Following the passage of the cold front, the region will return to a familiar cool and quiet weather pattern.
.SHORT TERM…
While widespread precip is not expected early, a finger of mixed precip may reach into far NW overnight tonight along convergence zone associated with strengthening warm front over Grt Lks. Did not include in front-page forecast, as dry air (RH < 66% even on lakeshore) may prevent onset. Otherwise, strong high to NE will dominate as southerly flow and WAA starts to crank up. Some brief instability shwrs may try to form as clouds begin to thicken in western zones, but have held off on widespread precip in east until Sat.
.LONG TERM…
Little agreement among models for the weekend outlook. The 18z GFS has a heavy, soaking rain beginning to work into western zones around 18z Saturday. This band of heavy precip will slowly make its way eastward overnight Saturday and throughout the day Sunday. Total QPF is on the order of 1.5-2" across the state. Total precip from this system may be higher in some locals due to the slow movement of this system. Timing of FROPA will determine the timing of the changeover. A light snow may coat areas as cold air works in behind the departing system. Precip looks to have cleared out of the state early Monday morning with cool, dry air settling in across the NE.
MC/CC
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