Wednesday Afternoon Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

The cold front that moved through the region today is just about though the entire state of Pennsylvania. This has caused the winds to pick up out of the Northwest and become quite gusty. Most of the state will experience clear skies tonight which will allow for temperatures to plummet down, due to the clear sky CAA combo, into the teens and even the single digits in some of the mountainous portions of the state (Bradford and Dubois I'm on to you). High pressure will take over tomorrow and control the commonwealth through Friday morning before a powerful low pressure system begins to slowly lumber eastward Friday night. This system will bring clouds that will blanket Pennsylvania by Saturday. This system will also bring heavy rain, above average temperatures, windy conditions, and maybe even a threat for severe weather to the state Saturday night and into Sunday before moving out of the region for the beginning of the next work week.

Short term: (Tonight)

The cold front that moved through the state today did not bring much in the way of precipitation today as the vort max remained in New York. Another interesting note h ere is the fact that lake Erie is mostly frozen and this only let snow showers develop off of lake Ontario today. This afternoon there were gravity wave clouds throughout the state but as this flow breaks down, so will the clouds so tonight should be mainly clear. This will allow temperature to plummet tonight as dew points across the state are in the single digits. With nothing to stop the temperature except the gusty wind I expect temperatures to fall near these dew points tonight.

Mid Term: (Thursday through Friday morning)

A large area of high pressure will develop in the wake of this cold front tomorrow and control the eastern seaboard through Friday. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday but begin to moderate by Friday.

Long Term: (Friday afternoon though Sunday)

A deep low pressure system will form in the plains on Friday and slowly work its eastward. The cloud shield should arrive by Friday evening with the rain beginning to push into the state by Saturday morning. This system will have very strong southerly winds in it's warm sector and this will cause regions of southeastern, PA to reach into the upper 50's on Saturday. The warm temperatures and instability may cause an outbreak of severe weather in eastern PA but it is still too early to tell. However, what is certain is that this system will be a slow mover and will dump a lot of moisture that it will be picking up from the Gulf of Mexico. Quantitatively we are expecting over an inch of rain for much of the state with portions see as much as 3 inches of rainfall! This will cause flooding concerns especially in the west where they saw significant rains recently. This system will move out of the region Sunday night causing more pleasant weather for the beginning of the next work week.

RJ Patrizio