Synopsis:
I wish it was an April fool's joke but unfortunately there is nothing comical here. I large two pronged storm system will pummel the Northeast with an assortment of heavy rain and snow over the next few days. The first wave of precipitation is currently moving through the state and is expected to leave anywhere from a tenth to a quarter inch of precipitation by Thursday evening. Depending on elevation and location, this will yield varying ratios and snowfall accumulations. The second punch, which has yet to be fully decided upon by the models will swing up the coast on Friday and could land anywhere from a short jab of precipitation as hinted by the NAM all the way to a full knockout blow is the GFS wins out. We will have to wait and see exactly what happens so be sure to pay close attention to the small run to run discrepancies as well as the fact that warm lower levels could make snow very difficult to accumulate. Behind this system winds will pick up out of the Northwest for Saturday and into Sunday keeping the state mostly cloudy for the weekend. Our next system will approach the region on Sunday night, bringing more rain to the state for the beginning of the next work week!
Short Term (Tonight through Thursday evening):
The first batch of precipitation is associated with overrunning and has been very well modeled for the better part of two days. Mountainous regions will see mainly snow tonight while the eastern third of the state will see either a mix of rain and snow or even all rain towards Philadelphia. The precipitation will linger throughout the day on Thursday with most of the state receiving between .1 and .25 inches of liquid equivalent. Due to the warm surface, little to no accumulation will occur from this precipitation and instead it will only set the table for the next batch to hit on Friday.
Midterm (Thursday night through Saturday morning):
The upper level trough will produce another batch of precipitation that will swing up the eastern seaboard on Friday. There is great model discrepancy however, the UKMET, CMC, and GFS all have been fairly consistent with a full fledge nor'easter that will bring heavy rain to Southeastern, PA and about 10 inches of snow to Northeastern and North central Pennsylvania. The only model not on board is the NAM which keeps taking this low too far off to sea. However, it is also colder than the other models. Also, when looking at run to run trends of the NAM, it is now trending more and more westward which leads me to believe that it will soon find the same solution as the other three models. Because of this, I am leaning toward the more devastating of the two solutions however; please check the newer model runs in order to finalize the forecast.
Long term (Saturday and Sunday):
Behind this system winds will strengthen out of the Northwest and with the recently thawed lakes, possibly cause some lake effect snow showers or at least keep the state cloudy. Temperatures will remain below average due to the fresh snowpack and Saturday night looks to be a MOS bust scenario. Sunday will be a similar day to Saturday but with a few less clouds, especially in the eastern half of the state. The next system should approach the region on Sunday night bringing a wet start to the next work week.
RJ Patrizio
No comments:
Post a Comment