Monday, March 28, 2011

Technical Discussion 3-28-11

Synopsis...
 
Cold wintry weather will hang around all week with a quiet start and nasty end to the week as a potential snow storm could impact Pennsylvania and the northeast.
 
Short Term...
Today and through tuesday looks to be pleasant as far as sunshine goes, but definitely quite chilly for spring. The large area of high pressure stretching from western Canada into the northeastern US coupled with a low pressure system over the the Canadian maritimes is allowing cold air to funnel into the northeast to bring chilly days and cold nights. The flow over the eastern US is generally zonal, so we shouldn't see any large storms brewing through tuesday.
 
Long Term...
Things get a little tricky as we head into wednesday through friday as a meridional flow starts to build and amplify. A southern-tracking weak low pressure system will give the chance for some rain/snow showers for very southern parts of PA on wednesday. This area of disturbed weather will move off the coast thursday morning, but it will be followed quickly by another, more potent storm possibly, thursday afternoon and overnight. The GFS model shows the 500mb trough continuing to amplify as it moves towards the east causing greater cyclonic vorticity values, thus the potential for a low to strengthen more significantly. Whether we will see significant accumulating snow or just slush will have to be determined later in the week as the stronger March sun and warmer boundary layer will cause melting. Definitely a storm to keep an eye on.
 
Josh Aikins

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