Friday, September 17, 2010

9/17 Forecast Discussion

Synopsis:

High pressure is taking hold tonight, creating warm temperatures and sunny skies throughout the Commonwealth. A weak frontal boundary looks to be moving thorough Sunday. WRF and GFS are in agreement that there's not much precipitation with this front. Once it's through a large ridge is moving in again for the beginning of next week.

Short-term:
The 6Z models are showing a dry air mass moving in tonight at the 700mb level indicating mostly clear skies. Temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 70s across the state according to most models, however, we expect it to warmer than this by a few degrees. A cold front will try to push through on Sunday, but any precipitation it will bring will be wrung out by the time it reaches Philadelphia. The SREF shows about a 15% chance of precipitation for most of the state, so we included the chance of a passing shower in our remarks for the zones. However, no significant precipitation is expected.

Long-term:
High pressure will dominate the region again after the weak front on Sunday. The 6Z AVN shows the high to be still off to our northwest, but it looks to be breaking down by Tuesday evening with the arrival of another low. The CMC shows that this low might be a powerful one, but model forecasts that far in advance can change drastically.


Burkely Twiest


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