Technical Forecast

Synopsis:

A shortwave will pass through the region on Thursday with showers following a seasonable day Wednesday.  Showers and thunderstorms will pass through the state Thursday as the front clears the region by daybreak Friday. Behind it, high pressure builds in and tranquil weather follows for most of Friday and Saturday. Another weak shortwave will approach the state Sunday potentially bringing a few showers, but it looks to be drier than Thursday.

 

Short Term (Wed - Thurs):

Clear skies in the morning Wednesday will allow for quick warming into the 70s across most of the state. A light northwesterly breeze may set off some fair-weather cumulus in the northern zones especially. Temperatures will drop quickly Wednesday night initially, as there should not be much cloud cover until close to daybreak. The WRF shows light precipitation beginning around mid-morning in the far west regions, reaching the central regions by mid-afternoon, and the eastern regions by early evening. In general, precipitation totals should be highest in a band oriented from the SW to NE corners of the state with 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain. The NW and SE regions may see only 0.10 to 0.25 inches.

 

Long Term (Thurs night – Sun):

The cold front will clear the state early Friday morning and allow for high pressure to build in.  Light winds and clear skies Friday night will allow temperatures to fall into the low 40s across much of the central and western portions of the state. The ECMWF, CMC and GFS are in good agreement with the longer term.  Another weakness may bring cloud cover and a shower to some areas on Saturday night into early Sunday. The zones most affected will be the northern and western ones. In general, temperatures will remain seasonable throughout the period.

 

-Josh Magerman