Synopsis…
Clouds wrap around the low on Friday, but high pressure quickly builds in and clears the skies and warms the temps for Saturday. A frontal passage projected for Sunday has a questionable amount of moisture. A larger ridge takes over for the start of the next work week.
Short Term (Fri. – Sun.)…
For Saturday high temps, MOS has been raising its numbers all week. We think the values are pretty reasonable here given how it warmed-up this last Monday (high around 80 in State College), but they could still be a little low.
Our icons indicate scattered/isolated showers for PIT, NW, and NC; and our remarks indicate slight chance of a shower everywhere except SE. Operational models have generally been consistent with a dry solution or a solution that dries out the rain as the front passes through PA. The SREF 3-Hour Precip. chance hasn't been so consistent but on average has been rainier.
0Z WRF seems to indicate that another area of low pressure will develop near Ohio at the tail end of the front and spread moderate rain across much of PA. Other models show something similar forming all the way in the Wisconsin/Minnesota area and not affecting us at all. We considered 0Z WRF solution an outlier and did not consider it in our forecast, except it pushed us over the edge in giving PIT a shower icon for Sunday.
Long Term (Mon. – Tues)…
Behind the front for early next week, high pressure builds in again for 2-3 days. The GFS, the CMC, and the GFS MREF indicate the center of the high will be in the southern states and to our west, thus keeping a west or west-north-west flow over us for much of the period. This could account for the not so warm temps in both MOS and raw model on Mon and Tues. Wed is quite warm ahead of the next cold front. And like previous systems this month, the one for next week may arrive sooner than the models see it 5-6 days out.
Scott Sieron
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