Synopsis…
Really warm today, like near record warmth. And then it gets cooler. Next week it rains.
Short-term (Fri. – Sun.):
We went 1-4 degrees above MOS for today's high, which put many highs at or near record highs. For precip with the front, operational models and ensemble means over the past 24 hours have been trending drier, and with low probability of measurable precip in the SREF, no region was forecasted for rain (though the discussion mentions that a stray shower is possible in extreme western PA). On the back side of the system (Saturday), most areas just see cloud cover, but the chance that NW and NC could see isolated showers is something that needs to be monitored. Not much going on Saturday night into the day Sunday with the Canadian high pretty well in control.
Long-term (Mon. – Tues.):
The 0Z WRF makes our cut-off low more progressive than the GFS solution, and therefore brings showers into PA as soon as Sunday night; I guess I would lean towards the WRF on this. All models show this to be a pretty significant rain event lasting about 36 hours, and I see the models showing numerous showers with periods of light to moderate rain. The Canadian model really digs that cut-off pretty far south and indicates plentiful access to deep tropical moisture via TS Matthew, though this is not the solution with which I would strongly agree.
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