Technical Discussion

 

Synopsis,

A cooler air mass behind a cold front that passed through yesterday will lower temperatures and also bring windy conditions to the commonwealth for the next few days.  Ahead of a cold front, Saturday will warm up, before that cold front will advance for the day Sunday bringing the next chance for rain.

Short Term (Thurs-Fri)

A low pressure system over Toronto will move eastward. This low pressure is bringing a northwest wind to the region and is bringing winding conditions with it. The NAM-WRF is continues to show  10-15 mph wind speeds through the day on Friday. This should keep the northeast parts cool, but the with the down sloping winds, the southeast could reach into the low 70s. With that low pressure bringing the northwest wind the NAM and GFS shows a chance for an isolated shower to form over the northwest portions of the state.  The models continue to show clouds to cover most of PA, but I think north of I-80 will be the best shot to see the clouds, otherwise I think most of the southern portions of the commonwealth will see a mostly sunny sky. I agree with the temperature output of the MOS as the 850s are only in the 5-8 degree Celsius range through Friday.

Long Term (Sat-Sun)

Saturday looks to be the best day out of the 5 days, as all the models have a ridge building over us. With 850s in the 13 degree Celsius range, I could see temperature in the 70s across the region with the southeast parts even getting to 80. Sunday is still up in the air as a weak cold front moves across. The remnants of Hermine could get pick up by the trough and bring some showers to the region.  The Canadian model is starting to back off on precipitation, and my gut feeling is the showers will be widely scattered, with rainfall totals not exceeding a tenth of an inch.