Synopsis...
A cold front with associated low pressure system will move through the area within the next 24 - 36 hours. Some moisture sticks around during the day on Friday, but clearing will occur for the first half of the weekend. A weak cold front will attempt to move through during the day on Sunday but high pressure quickly builds in to the Southeast early next week.
Short Term...
As indicated in the previous forecast discussion, convection occurring with cold frontal passage should enter western portions of the state by around 15z by both the GFS and WRF models. Expect some substantial rainfall for parts of the area as PWATS with the frontal passage are close to 2", so isolated amounts of over an inch is most certainly reasonable especially where convection occurs in the western half of the state. After the front passes through the state tomorrow morning, some moisture lingers for most of the day so a chance of showers, especially for southern portions of the area, could occur.
Long Term...
After the front moves through on Friday, a ridge of high pressure attempts to set up over the region for the early part of the weekend with moderating temperatures. A damper to the weekend may be a weak frontal passage that is indicated by both the WRF and the GFS at some point during the day on Sunday that may bring a shower or two to most areas with temps sticking around 70 degrees. PWAT values are lower with this front so most precipitation will not be significant. After that front attempts to move through, high pressure finally is able to build in to our southeast and warmer temperatures will come into the region for the early part of next week.
Forecaster: Kyle Imhoff
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