Synopsis...
Seasonable temperatures with slightly breezy winds hold for Thursday and Friday. A front associated with the remnants of Hermine is expected to move through the state Saturday night and throughout the early part of the day Sunday. Ahead of this front are warmer temperatures, with temperatures staying in the lower 70s throughout the end of this forecast discussion period.
Short Term (Thur & Fri)...
A persistence forecast is the best bet for both of these days in terms of temperature - 60s throughout the state with high 50s in parts of the northern counties. All models are in agreement for temperatures through Friday afternoon, with maybe a degree or two of variation. Nothing else exciting though in terms of weather... perhaps one exception between Thursday and Friday will be cloud cover. A ridge will build in Thursday night into Friday evening, quelling the winds a bit and clearing the skies for the entire day Friday.
Long Term (Sat & Beyond)...
The ridge of high pressure in place on Friday will be pushed out by a front associated with the remnants of Hermine. GFS has the front entering the Southwest part of the state Saturday afternoon, with showers behind it building in during the evening. The front looks to pass through during the day Sunday. GFS and WRF indicate the front is gradually losing moisture as it gets somewhat trapped behind the ridge ahead of it, but enough moisture should retain so that most areas see a light rain at some point in the day. I am going with a 60% POP for the state, with places in the south more likely to see a heavier shower. Sunday night looks to clear out for the most part, with partly cloudy skies overnight and maybe an isolated shower to the extreme southeastern parts of the state. Back to GFS, a disturbance looks to build in Monday afternoon and perhaps bring a scattered shower to the northern parts of the state. This part of the forecast will be tricky. Regardless, temperatures look to hold a closer diurnal range, with highs in this part of the forecast expected to be a bit above normal - low to mid 70s.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology.
Seasonable temperatures with slightly breezy winds hold for Thursday and Friday. A front associated with the remnants of Hermine is expected to move through the state Saturday night and throughout the early part of the day Sunday. Ahead of this front are warmer temperatures, with temperatures staying in the lower 70s throughout the end of this forecast discussion period.
Short Term (Thur & Fri)...
A persistence forecast is the best bet for both of these days in terms of temperature - 60s throughout the state with high 50s in parts of the northern counties. All models are in agreement for temperatures through Friday afternoon, with maybe a degree or two of variation. Nothing else exciting though in terms of weather... perhaps one exception between Thursday and Friday will be cloud cover. A ridge will build in Thursday night into Friday evening, quelling the winds a bit and clearing the skies for the entire day Friday.
Long Term (Sat & Beyond)...
The ridge of high pressure in place on Friday will be pushed out by a front associated with the remnants of Hermine. GFS has the front entering the Southwest part of the state Saturday afternoon, with showers behind it building in during the evening. The front looks to pass through during the day Sunday. GFS and WRF indicate the front is gradually losing moisture as it gets somewhat trapped behind the ridge ahead of it, but enough moisture should retain so that most areas see a light rain at some point in the day. I am going with a 60% POP for the state, with places in the south more likely to see a heavier shower. Sunday night looks to clear out for the most part, with partly cloudy skies overnight and maybe an isolated shower to the extreme southeastern parts of the state. Back to GFS, a disturbance looks to build in Monday afternoon and perhaps bring a scattered shower to the northern parts of the state. This part of the forecast will be tricky. Regardless, temperatures look to hold a closer diurnal range, with highs in this part of the forecast expected to be a bit above normal - low to mid 70s.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology.
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